Figures from the Ministry’s School e-Rudnik (ŠeR) system show that Vukovar-Srijem County recorded the steepest percentage decline between the 2013/2014 and 2026/2027 school years, losing 8,094 pupils, or 34.37%. Brod-Posavina County followed with a decrease of 31.41%, equivalent to 6,504 pupils, while Požega-Slavonia County lost 3,229 pupils, a drop of 31.23%. More than 20% declines were also recorded in Virovitica-Podravina, Sisak-Moslavina, Osijek-Baranja, Lika-Senj and Bjelovar-Bilogora counties.
In absolute numbers, Osijek-Baranja County experienced the largest reduction, with 8,870 fewer pupils. Only two areas recorded an increase over the period: Zagreb, where pupil numbers rose by 2.16%, or 2,095, and Istria County, which recorded a 1.87% increase, or 399 additional pupils. The decline affected both genders, with the number of boys falling by 12.88% and girls by 12.22%.
The data nevertheless suggest that the pace of decline has slowed. Croatia lost 11,992 pupils between the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 school years, compared with 537 in the latest year-on-year period, between 2025/2026 and 2026/2027. The trend also varies significantly by geography: island schools lost just 143 pupils, or 1.36%, over the 13-year period, while schools in mountainous areas recorded a much steeper decline of 5,555 pupils, or 19.8%.
Among island schools, Dubrovnik-Neretva County recorded the largest decline, at 8.28%, while Split-Dalmatia County saw an increase of 5.54%, adding 149 pupils. In mountainous areas, Brod-Posavina County experienced the sharpest drop, at 46.74%, followed by Virovitica-Podravina at 44%, Šibenik-Knin at 42.98% and Vukovar-Srijem at 40.95%. Zagreb County was the only area in this category to record an increase, with pupil numbers rising by 1.84%.
