According to the latest UN population report, the global population, currently at 8.2 billion, is expected to reach approximately 10.3 billion by the 2080s before gradually decreasing to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, highlighted that fertility rates in several countries have dropped faster than previously expected, with even regions of traditionally high fertility showing more rapid declines. In more than half of the world’s countries and territories, the average number of births per woman has fallen below 2.1— the level needed to maintain a stable population in the absence of migration.
The report notes that nearly 20% of all countries and regions, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now have ultra-low fertility rates, with fewer than 1.4 children born per woman over their lifetimes. This trend is poised to lead to dramatic population declines in countries like China, where the population is forecasted to more than halve from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633.4 million by 2100. Despite this significant drop, China is expected to remain the second most populous country, behind India, which is projected to have around 1.5 billion people by century’s end.
As of 2024, population peaks have already been reached in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, with their collective populations expected to decrease by 14% over the next 30 years. Another 48 countries, including Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, are projected to reach their population peaks between 2025 and 2054.
In contrast, in 126 other nations, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, the population is expected to continue growing until the latter half of the century or beyond, before eventually plateauing or declining.
These projections underscore a profound demographic shift that could reshape global economies, societies, and geopolitical dynamics in the decades to come.
