The Berlin Process Summit in Montenegro brought fresh commitments to regional cooperation. But with almost $20 billion in potential exports to the EU still unrealised, the Western Balkans faces an uncomfortable question: how many more agreements does it need before the ones already signed begin to work?
Twelve years after Germany launched the Berlin Process to bring the Western Balkans closer together, the region is still struggling to make its own borders easier to cross. Governments have agreed to recognise qualifications, remove trade barriers and create a common regional market. Yet for many businesses, expanding into a neighbouring country remains unnecessarily complicated.
The problem is no longer a shortage of agreements. It is the widening distance between political ambition and economic reality.
That contradiction followed European and Western Balkan leaders to Miločer, Montenegro, on 22 October. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz joined Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić and regional leaders at a moment when EU enlargement has regained strategic importance. Europe increasingly recognises the geopolitical cost of leaving the Western Balkans outside the Union. But recognising the urgency of integration and making it happen remain very different things.
Montenegro’s chairmanship had produced 26 events, including 14 ministerial meetings. The programme covered everything from security to digital transformation.
It was an impressive diplomatic undertaking, although the number of meetings says little about whether cooperation has become easier. Amer Kapetanović, Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council, offered a more revealing assessment. Technical progress, he warned, too often moves faster than political decisions, while implementation falls further behind.
It was an unusually candid acknowledgement from an institution responsible for advancing regional cooperation. And it raised a question that extends well beyond the Berlin Process: what is the value of political consensus if governments cannot turn it into results?
THE $20 BILLION QUESTION
The Western Balkans Six Chamber Investment Forum estimates that the region has almost $20 billion in unrealised export potential to the European Union. Meanwhile, average GDP per capita across the six economies reached just 43% of the EU average in 2025.
The $20 billion is not money waiting to be collected simply by opening borders. It is an estimate of what stronger competitiveness, better market access and fewer trade obstacles could help regional businesses achieve.
But it exposes an uncomfortable reality. Six relatively small economies, all seeking greater access to European markets, continue to make trade among themselves more difficult than necessary.
A manufacturer may find customers across the border yet lose its competitive advantage through delays, inconsistent customs procedures or certification requirements. Large companies can absorb some of those costs. Smaller businesses often cannot.
The Common Regional Market was supposed to change this. Its 2025–2028 action plan covers trade, investment, mobility and digital integration. Earlier Berlin Process agreements have already improved roaming arrangements and created frameworks for recognising qualifications.
Progress exists. The frustration is that it remains uneven, leaving businesses to operate within a regional market that often functions better on paper than in practice.
WHAT MONTENEGRO DELIVERED
The summit produced a concrete commitment when leaders endorsed the Western Balkans Artificial Intelligence Roadmap, developed by the Regional Cooperation Council and previously adopted at the Digital Summit in Herceg Novi.
For economies seeking higher productivity, AI could offer genuine advantages. Digital public services could reduce administrative costs, while smaller companies could gain access to technologies that make them more competitive.
But a roadmap is a starting point, not an achievement in itself. Its value will depend on investment, skills and governments’ willingness to turn shared priorities into functioning systems.
The contrast is difficult to ignore. Regional leaders are preparing for an AI-driven economy while businesses still encounter obstacles that European integration was meant to remove years ago. The two ambitions are not incompatible, but technological progress cannot compensate for administrative inefficiency.
Montenegro’s chairmanship also advanced the WB6–EU Industrial Parks Partnership, launched in September, connecting seven industrial parks and business zones in the Western Balkans with six European counterparts. Unlike another declaration of intent, this initiative could create direct relationships between manufacturers, investors and European supply chains.
Whether those relationships develop into commercial projects will be a more meaningful measure of success than the partnership’s launch.
EUROPE HAS ITS OWN TEST
The Western Balkans is not alone in facing difficult decisions. Brussels must determine how much economic integration candidate countries can achieve before becoming EU members.
Energy offers one possibility. Energy Community Director Artur Lorkowski highlighted the prospect of accelerated access to EU electricity markets for economies that meet European rules. Such integration could improve energy security and encourage investment before accession.
Yet the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism creates additional complications. Without careful coordination, measures intended to encourage cleaner production could introduce new costs and discourage the very investments the region needs.
This is not simply a problem for aspiring EU members. European manufacturers rely on Western Balkan suppliers, transport networks and production facilities. A more competitive, integrated region would also benefit the Union.
For Montenegro, which hopes to join the EU by 2028, the stakes are particularly high. Its progress could demonstrate that sustained reform leads to membership. But it also raises a question for the wider region: what happens when neighbouring economies integrate with Europe at different speeds?
The challenge is to prevent the accession process from creating new economic divisions while older ones remain unresolved.
BEYOND THE DECLARATIONS
The Berlin Process deserves credit for keeping regional cooperation alive through years of political disagreement. Without it, several mobility agreements, business initiatives and practical improvements might have taken considerably longer.
But twelve years is long enough to expect more than momentum.
Political disputes continue to obstruct cooperation. Companies still encounter avoidable barriers. Governments endorse new initiatives while struggling to fulfil older commitments. And a region with considerable economic potential remains far poorer than the European market it hopes to join.
The next phase should be judged differently: by border waiting times, transaction costs, recognised qualifications, functioning industrial partnerships and measurable improvements in market access.
None of these would produce a particularly memorable summit photograph. All would make a difference to the people whose future European leaders gathered in Montenegro to discuss.
The next Berlin Process summit will almost certainly produce another declaration. A more meaningful achievement would be a region in which businesses spend less time at borders, professionals can take their qualifications across them, and governments no longer need to announce the same ambitions twice.
