POLITICAL CRISES HAVE A WAY OF making everything else appear suspended. Governments collapse, elections produce months of negotiations, international disputes escalate and public debate becomes consumed by what might happen next. Yet outside that political drama, companies continue negotiating contracts, manufacturers invest in new equipment and entrepreneurs enter uncertain markets. The economy rarely has the luxury of waiting for politics to resolve itself.
Political stability is often treated as a prerequisite for economic progress, although the relationship is less straightforward than political rhetoric suggests. A stable government cannot manufacture competitive businesses, just as an unstable one cannot automatically prevent them from succeeding. Much depends on how much room businesses have to operate independently of political decisions.
Belgium offered a striking illustration when it spent 541 days without an elected federal government between 2010 and 2011. Companies continued trading, public services operated and economic activity carried on. Established institutions and administrative arrangements provided continuity, demonstrating that an economy’s ability to function does not always depend on politicians reaching agreement.
For companies connected to international markets, the distinction is particularly relevant. A business exporting components to Germany or providing software to American clients makes decisions according to demand, competitiveness and commercial opportunity. Domestic political developments matter, but they are not the only forces shaping its future.
Across the Adria region, companies are building commercial relationships that often develop according to a different logic from politics. A Slovenian manufacturer, a Serbian technology company and a Croatian logistics business may have more immediate economic interests in common than their respective political establishments. Supply chains and customer relationships do not necessarily follow the divisions dominating public debate.
Political instability can nevertheless inflict serious economic damage. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how rapidly geopolitical events can transform energy costs, inflation and industrial competitiveness across Europe.
Trade restrictions, sanctions and regulatory changes can make previously profitable business models unviable.
But there is a difference between instability that changes the economics of a business and instability that merely dominates the atmosphere in which decisions are made. A manufacturer postponing expansion because energy costs have made production unprofitable faces a genuine commercial constraint. A company indefinitely delaying a viable project because the political environment feels unsettled may be surrendering opportunities to competitors.
Political leaders often present economic performance as evidence of their success and disappointing results as consequences of international circumstances. Yet an economy’s strength is accumulated over years through private investment, entrepreneurship, institutions and relationships with foreign markets. These do not begin with each new administration, nor necessarily disappear when one leaves office.
The most valuable economic institutions are not those promising businesses favourable treatment under a particular government, but those making such treatment unnecessary. A dependable legal system, predictable regulation and professional administration allow commercial decisions to survive changes in political leadership.
Businesses face a similar choice. Those building strategies around political relationships or temporary advantages make their future dependent on circumstances they cannot control. Companies investing in productivity, capable management and diversified markets have more ways to respond when political conditions change. Their resilience is built into the business rather than borrowed from the political environment.
Political decisions still influence investment, institutions and economic opportunity. But every political crisis need not become an economic verdict. An economy is not simply an extension of its government; it is the accumulated activity of businesses, workers and investors whose decisions extend beyond electoral mandates.
For our region, the ambition should be to sustain investment, entrepreneurship and opportunity through political change, rather than wait for a period of perfect stability.
An economy’s future should not have to be renegotiated after every election.
