Donald Trump performed a miracle. Against all odds, he succeeded in being re-elected as the 47th President of the United States of America. He secured a large majority in the Electoral College, won the popular vote by a wide margin, and saw the Republicans ensure their dominance in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. With a clear conservative majority in the US Supreme Court, Trump’s stunning victory gives him the power and the legitimacy to bring about radical change for both America and the world.
Having reaffirmed his “will to power”, Donald Trump finds himself in a situation evocative of the one described by Nietzsche in Thus Spoke Zarathustra: “You want to create the world before which you can kneel: this is your ultimate hope and intoxication”. The question that naturally arises here is: What does Trump intend to do with this extraordinary opportunity? Thus far, his cabinet picks and the record pace with which they have been made (much faster than Joe Biden’s) suggest that the second Trump administration will likely be more efficient and organised than his first one. It will be composed primarily of loyalists, with key policies to be devised and overseen by Trump himself and his inner circle within the White House. Undoubtedly, Trump will seek to install tight control mechanisms.
The question that naturally arises here is: What does Trump intend to do with this extraordinary opportunity?
Trump will probably focus on key issues that resonated with Americans, issues where he outperformed Kamala Harris in the election: illegal immigration and inflation. On the immigration front, he may push for Mexico to deploy its military to protect much better both its southern and northern border, preventing and combating the smuggling of migrants, but also of narcotics. A border deal with Mexico, followed by a significant drop in illegal immigration and high-profile deportations, could generate positive media coverage for Trump. If the Mexicans resist cooperation, Trump could threaten to strangle their country’s economy. His approach to border protection and immigration policy would probably influence how other Western countries tackle these issues, in line with the growing trend of strengthening national sovereignty in a world prone to fragmentation into competing blocks.
On the economic front, Trump is likely to push for increased domestic oil and gas drilling with two primary goals. First, to lower energy prices, reducing the cost of living and enhancing his popularity among Americans. Second, to continue reindustrialising the US economy, a process already underway due to globally competitive energy costs and the Inflation Reduction Act passed by the Biden administration. This would make the US even more attractive to domestic and foreign investors at the expense of other regions, such as Europe.
“Making America great again”, a slogan Trump “borrowed” from Ronald Reagan, is essentially about the economy. In military terms, the US is so “great” that it dominates the world. In 2023, it spent more than 800 billion dollars on defence, more than the next fourteen countries combined, including China, Russia, and India. However, Trump’s primary goal will be to ensure that the US remains the world’s strongest economy, which is why he will not refrain from using tariffs – his “most beautiful world in the dictionary” – as a tool. In Trumponomics, energy policy will play a crucial role, especially since the US is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas.
Trump’s primary goal will be to ensure that the US remains the world’s strongest economy, which is why he will not refrain from using tariffs
Donald Trump will also have to navigate global challenges, first and foremost the rise of China, the only true competitor with the intent and the potential to reshape the international political and economic order. With its production exceeding by a large margin that of the next biggest manufacturers – including the US, Japan, Germany, and India – China has become the world’s manufacturing superpower. In light of the Monroe doctrine, it is remarkable that China has almost surpassed the US in its “backyard”: it is now the second-largest trading partner for Latin America and the largest trading partner for South America, where it has also expanded its diplomatic, cultural, and military presence. At the same time, the US will also have to deal with countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Although less powerful individually, they are supported by China and form a bloc that rejects Western dominance. Trump’s plan to reach a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is part of his strategy to pull Moscow away from Beijing. However, achieving this will not be easy, as Trump, just like his predecessor Obama, faces resistance from the entrenched forces of the American foreign policy establishment.
Continuing the pivot to Asia – crucial for maintaining American dominance – and unequivocally supporting Israel in the Middle East will naturally lead to a reduced US engagement in Europe. This, in turn, will force the Europeans to take greater responsibility for their own security and stability. In the case of the Western Balkans, a stable order can be best achieved through its integration into a reformed European Union based on realistic energy, migration, and climate change policies. The upcoming competition between the West, led by the US, and the Global South, led by China, will leave no room for a utopian European approach to world politics. It is time to shift toward realism and common sense.
